When Will Tech Stop Falling?
2020 was a banner year for the tech sector as stocks all
across the industry got bid up to sometimes insane valuations in a fear of
missing out for investors. But 2020 is gone and now it’s 2021. And the changing
calendar is also bringing with it a change in the markets as evidenced by the
roughly 7% drop in the tech-heavy Nasdaq index over the past two weeks.
Lately investors have been dumping their tech shares in fear
of getting killed as the yield on U.S. 10-year Treasuries has jumped from 0.93%
at the start of the year to 1.54% at the end of this week. And as rates keep
rising the pressure on tech gets more intense.
The problem is that in 2020 tech shares were rising based on
their future earnings, but when rates are rising those future earnings will be
worth less compared with today’s dollars. As a result growth isn’t valued as
Investors have recently been moving into more economically
sensitive stocks like the energy complex, industrial stocks, healthcare names,
and the financial sector shares. And the damage to tech likely isn’t finished
It will take some time for analysts to get around to recalculating
the increased operating costs and financing costs caused by higher interest
rates. Another things to consider for corporate profits in the coming quarters
is the return of the travel and entertainment budget, which has been largely
absent over the past year due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Until real fear begins to hit Wall Street the pain in the
technology sector will likely drag on.
European Daily Market Review
The leading European stock markets are also into a retreated mode today.The French CAC-40 tumbled 0.24%, the German DAX fell 0.47% and FTSE-100 declined 2.11%.This happens after global markets were roiled by an unexpected spike in bond yields.Russian oppositionist Alexey Navalny has been transferred from a Moscow detention center to a penal colony, as reported by the state run media.The exact location and name of the penal colony was not cited.The European Union could waive limits on government borrowing again in 2022, given persistent uncertainties about the pace of economic recovery.The European Commission will decide on the criteria on March 3 for a recommendation for 2021.The pan-European Stoxx-600 dropped 1.1% by mid-afternoon, with basic resources falling a whole 3.2% to lead the dropping pattern.
U.S. Daily Market Review
U.S. stocks retreated some ground with S&P-500 on track for its weakest sessions of the month.Tech stocks rallied the broader market higher on Friday, regaining its path from sharp drops.The Nasdaq Composite added 1.1% as Big Tech stocks. Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Microsoft soared 1.3%. The S&P-500 and the Nasdaq index after a massive as tech-related stocks rebounded but the mode is still between gains and losses.The USD appreciated versus the main pairs as U.S. government bond yields held near one-year highs.The USD Index added 0.18% to 90.479, after earlier surging 90.773, its best of the week.
Gold Prices Fall
Gold prices slipped this morning during the Asian hours, retreating some of the recent rallies.This comes in hand with monthly losses amid higher expectations for a global economic recovery from COVID-19 and inflation concerns boosted U.S. Treasury yields.Now, gold trades at $1757.99, which is a further decline of $11.96 or 0.68% from the previous close of 1769.95.The daily trading range is from $1755.24 to 1775.70, while the trading volume is 293.557K.The USD advanced and in general the prices of the greenback and the yellow metal are into a negative relationship.SPDR Gold Trust, the leading gold-backed exchange-traded fund dropped 0.6% yesterday, which its weakest mark since May 2020.Moreover, the U.S. Federal Reserve's indicated in that it is not concerned with rising bond yields.
Asian Daily Market Review
Asian markets are trading sharply lower on Friday as massive
selling in bond markets have sent yields flying higher, causing investors to
fear that the heavy losses being suffered in the bond markets could spark
distress selling in other markets. It also follows the worst selloff overnight for
the Nasdaq since October.
In Japan the Nikkei is trading 2.4% lower as the overnight
weakness of the Yen is also reversing itself due to investors seeking safe
havens. Shares of Softbank Group are 3.6% lower, and Sony is shedding 2.7%.
Among the major exporters, shares of Toyota have dropped 1.5%, while Panasonic
is plunging 4% lower, and Canon trades 2.4% lower.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 is down 2% as the big four banks
are failing to provide any protection from losses today. Shares of ANZ are 1.5%
lower, NAB is down 1.3%, Commonwealth Bank has lost 1.8%, and Westpac has a
1.6% loss. Major miners are also falling today, with BHP 2.1% lower, Rio Tinto
falling 1.4%, and Fortescue Metals down 3%.
Mainland Chinese markets haven’t avoided the downdraft and
the benchmark Shanghai Composite has a loss of 1.6%, while the smaller cap
Shenzhen Composite is dropping 1.7%. Meanwhile in Hong Kong the Hang Seng is
trading 2.2% lower to outpace the moves on the mainland.
In South Korea the Kospi is leading losses for the region as
it’s falling 2.7%, and in Taiwan the Taiex trades 2.2% lower.
Southeast Asian markets are seeing more modest losses, with
Singapore’s Straits Times Index 1% lower, the Jakarta Composite in Indonesia
losing 0.3%, and the KLCI in Malaysia edging lower by 0.1%.
Could Crude Oil Hit $100 A Barrel?
Roughly a year ago oil prices went negative, something that
was unheard of even as it occurred. And now in late February 2021 oil prices
are rallying, with some analysts suggesting that prices could reach $100 a
Not only is that a stark comparison to the negative prices
seen in the depths of a coronavirus panic in March 2020, it’s a level that
would have seemed impossible even before the coronavirus hit.
Now $100 a barrel oil is quite high, but to be clear analysts
aren’t expecting a sustained move above that level, nor are they saying crude
will trade that high in the next month or two. But analysts at Bank of America
have raised their long-term projections, saying crude will trade above $100 a
barrel from time to time between now and 2026.
That said, the analysts average price for crude in 2021 is
$60 a barrel, or slightly below where it trades currently. The analyst does
expect a jump to $70 a barrel in the second quarter, but a return to nearer $60
for the remainder of the year.
The real spike in prices is being forecast for late 2022,
with December futures currently projecting crude prices above $100 a barrel.
The additional supply that the U.S. shale producers added to
the market after 2014 kept oil prices low, but recently they have promised to
keep production in check.
However it seems unlikely that they would do that if crude
prices head above $80 a barrel. There’s also the chance of the U.S. removing
sanctions on Iran, which would increase supplies and depress prices.
Crypto Daily Market Review
Cryptocurrency markets were mixed Thursday, with Bitcoin and
Ethereum edging lower, but many of the other top ten altcoins, and other
altcoins, rising in opposition to the leaders.
At the end of the day Bitcoin (BTC) was slightly lower on
the day, falling 0.4%, but giving back roughly $3,000 worth of gains made
earlier in the session. Number two cryptocurrency Ethereum (ETH) also posted a
loss of 3.2% on the day.
Bitcoin now has a loss of 6.6% over the past week, but
Ethereum, whose price was approaching $2,000 recently, has been hit much harder
as it is now down 21.2% over the past 7 days.
In the top ten altcoins number five coin Cardano (ADA) had
the best performance of the session, rising 8.9%. It has been one of the
strongest of the top ten altcoins over the past week, rising 21% as of Thursday
Another recently strong coin is Binance Coin (BNB), which is
number three in the list of coins by market cap. It was up 2% on Thursday and
has registered a gain of 25% over the past week.
Other winners in the top ten included Litecoin (LTC) with a
gain of 7.5% and Polkadot (DOT) with a slight gain of 0.6%. Litecoin is
recovering from weakness, and has fallen 17.4% over the past week, while
Polkadot is 4.9% higher over the past week.
Other losers in the top ten include Chainlink (LINK), which
was 2.9% lower on the day and is 20.3% lower on a weekly basis.
Overall there were 40 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies that
registered losses for the day.
U.S. Daily Market Review
After having a single good day mid-week U.S. markets are
extending their selloff on Thursday as Treasury yields continue climbing
higher. Technology shares are once again at the head of the rout, with the
sector down 3.3% heading into the afternoon session.
Unlike the losses from early in the week, where value stocks
held up well and the Dow Industrials remained in positive territory, today’s
rout in the market is complete. Heading into the afternoon on Wall Street the
Dow Industrials are trading 1.6% lower, while the S&P 500 is down 2.3%, and
the tech heavy Nasdaq is falling 3.3%.
Earlier in the week shares of energy and financial companies
benefitted from the rising interest rates and the prospect for a rapid, strong
economic recovery, but that isn’t the case today. Instead the enery sector is
trading 2% lower, while the financials are losing 1.3%.
In fact, all eleven of the S&P 500 subsectors are
trading lower today. The best results are coming from the consumer staples and
utilities sectors, trading lower by 1% and 1.4% respectively.
The industrial sector is 2% lower today and the materials
sector is trading down by 2.3%.
Consumer discretionary names are again pacing losses for the
technology stocks, with the sector trading down by 3.3% to match the loss from
Shares of GameStop are in the spotlight again today, trading
up 80% after making a 100% gain in the prior session. Once again the move is
being driven by the Reddit /WallStreetBets message board. AMC Entertainment is
also participating in the rally, but with a much smaller gain of 12%.
European Daily Market Review
European markets are suffering broad-based losses on
Thursday as the continued rise in U.S. Treasury yields has investors unnerved
and unwilling to buy risky assets like equities.
The pan-European Stoxx Europe 600 is falling 0.3% today,
with the DAX 30 in Germany trading 0.7% lower to lead losses for the region.
The CAC 40 in France has a more modest loss of 0.2%.
The worst performer in Germany’s DAX today is Bayer with a
loss of 6.4% after announcing weaker than expected earnings guidance for the
rest of 2021. The best performer is Deutsche Bank, with shares rising 3.9% in
response to the rise in interest rates in the U.S.
France’s CAC 40 is seeing its largest drop from Airbus, with
its shares lower by 3.7% after cancelling an order for 88 planes from bankrupt
Norwegian Air. Meanwhile the best performer on the CAC 40 is also from the
banking sector. Shares of Societe Generale are trading up by 2.7% to lead
gainers in the CAC 40.
Meanwhile in Italy the FTSE MiB is 0.2% lower, while the
IBEX 35 in Spain is outperforming the region with an advance of 0.6%.
Shares of Belgium-based Anheuser-Busch InBev are 6.2% lower
after the beverage maker forecast rising costs and a hit to margins in the
Over in the U.K. the FTSE 100 is trading lower by just 0.1%
amidst a number of earnings reports from some of the world’s largest companies.
Shares of Standard Chartered are bucking the rising trend
for banks today, with shares falling 6.2% after the bank missed expectations
for 2020 annual profits.
Asian Daily Market Review
Asian markets are trading broadly higher on Thursday morning
after a winning session on Wall Street overnight that came on the comments of
Fed chairman Jerome Powell. The Fed chair reiterated the Fed’s willingness to
continue providing support to markets and the economy, while also highlighting
the improvements the Fed is seeing in the U.S. economy.
In Australia the S&P/ASX 200 is trading up by 1%, with
the big four banks pacing that gain. Shares of NAB and Westpac are each trading
higher by 1.4%, Commonwealth Bank has a 1.1% gain, and ANZ is lagging with a
0.4% advance. Meanwhile the major miners are continuing to make gains on the
inflation expectations. BHP is 3.5% higher, Rio Tinto has added 2.1%, and
Fortescue Metals is up by 2%.
In Japan the Nikkei has advanced 1.6% in morning trade as
the Yen is weaker versus the U.S. dollar. Shares of Softbank Group are jumping
3.6% higher and Sony is advancing 2.8%. Among the major exporters Toyota has
added 2.6%, Panasonic trades 1.3% higher, and Canon has a 0.5% gain.
Mainland Chinese markets are also higher, with the benchmark
Shanghai Composite adding 1%, while the smaller cap Shenzhen Composite has a
gain of 0.4%. Over in Hong Kong the Hang Seng is outpacing the mainland with a
In South Korea the Kospi is leading gains for the region as
it’s added 2.1%, while Taiwan’s Taiex has a gain of 1%.
Southeast Asian markets are broadly higher as well, with
Singapore’s Straits Times adding 1.3%, Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite 0.8%
higher, and the KLCI in Malaysia up 0.7%.
Is GBP/USD Headed Lower?
The GBP/USD jumped to the 1.4240 level in early trade
Wednesday, and quickly turned back as it hit strong resistance. The surge
represented a three-year high for the pair, but by the close it was back near
its opening level at the 1.4135 handle.
The resulting candle was a large shooting star, which
indicates further downside could be in the cards for the pair. A shooting star
candle is considered a bearish reversal candle, and given that the GBP/USD has
been moving steadily higher with hardly a break since September it wouldn’t be
unusual to see the pair pullback and consolidate.
If it does respect the shooting star and head lower there is
the obvious support at the 1.4000 level, but that’s simply the psychological
support of a large round number. The real support level to keep an eye on is at
the 1.3750 handle.
If the pair were to drop that far some consolidation at that
level wouldn’t be surprising, but an immediate bounce could happen just as
Even though the pair might be looking a bit bearish in the
short term, the longer term picture seems to support more gains for the pair
and could see it trading to levels not seen since the Brexit referendum.
Consider too that a close above the 1.4245 level would be the
first indication of the pair snapping a downtrend that’s been in place since
2007. If the pair continues to retreat however we could soon see a test of the
1.2000 level, and the printing of a lower low under that level.
U.S. Daily Market Review
The stock market marked a further big intraday comeback today.The Dow Jones Industrial Average recovered a loss of 110-points and secured another 424.51 points, or 1.4%, to a record closing high of 31,961.86.Chevron surged 3.7%. Goldman Sachs and Visa both advanced more than 3%. Traders sent longer-term U.S. TreasuryYields soared and became stronger the yield curve.The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell continued signaling the central bank will leave interest rates unchanged for a long time.The benchmark 10-year yield gained 1.8 basis points at 1.3824% in afternoon trading. Shares of GameStop jumped more than 100% today.
European Daily Market Review
European markets are still without a clear market direction. The French CAC-40 gained 0.22%, while the FTSE0100 fell 0.33% and the German DAX slipped 0.09%.The pan-European Stoxx-600 moved around the flatline in early trade, with chemicals adding 0.7%.Lloyds reported full-year pretax profit of £1.2 billion pounds ($1.70 billion), falling lower than the £4.4 billion in 2019.The GBP appreciated above $1.42 on Wednesday, coming within touching distance of $1.43. The sterling became the best-performing G10 currency this year, after securing around 4% versus the USD.The German economy soared more than the predictions in the final quarter of 2020, as reported by the official numbers. The country of Belarus has introduced price restrictions on vital goods and some medicines, affective as of today.The decree, published on the government’s legal portal, fixed a ban until March 1 on price rallies of the prices of 62 products, such as bread, pork and beef and key medicines.
The USD sunk to a three-year bottom versus the GBP and marked some drops versus commodities currencies.There is a higher market sentiment that the global economic recovery will add to the demand for riskier assets.Presently, the USD versus the GBP trades at 0.7052GBP, which is another loss of 0.00312 or 0.44% from the previous close of $0.70834.The daily trading range is from $0.7037 to 0.7092.The New Zealand dollar was in focus before a central bank meeting, which is expected to boost the rate of the kiwi.U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reported yesterday that interest rates will remain low and the Fed will extend its bonds buying program to support the U.S. economy.Moreover, the British poun GBP appreciated to $1.4120, the highest since April 2018. The pattern for the GBP has improved as investors cheer Britain's rapid coronavirus vaccination programme and its plans to ease lockdown restrictions on its businesses.
Gold Prices Surged
Gold prices advanced today during the Asian hours, close to a one-week peak reached during the previous session.The price advance of the precious metal is boosted by the falling rate of the USD and comments by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that the U.S. economy is still into a good trend of recovery.Presently, gold trades at $1806.96, which is an addition of $1.84 or 0.10% from the previous close of 1805.12.The daily trading range is from 1804.34 to 1813.72, while the trading volume is 153.814K.Powell testified before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee yesterday that monetary policy still needed to be accommodative with economic recovery.As benchmark ten-year U.S. Treasury yields fell, gold is likely to react to the moves in bond yields.Now, the market is focused to see whether the U.S. Congress will approve $1.9 trillion COVID-19 stimulus package.