Market Analysis – GBPUSD
The British Pound is slightly declining against the US Dollar during today’s morning trading session, correcting after similar sluggish gains the previous day. The movement has more-or-less corrected all gains from the day before, but again the bullish movement yesterday was minimal and there was no major win for the Pound.
British investors seem to be holding back and steering clear from opening new trading positions, preferring to wait for today’s publication of the UK labor market report for January-February, which is deemed as a possible market driver. In addition, the market is awaiting a speech by the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey.
Tomorrow, the UK is to publish February statistics on consumer inflation and retail prices. Inflation, as well as consumer prices, are expected to rise modestly in February, which clearly correlates with the gradual recovery in the economy of the UK, which has made significant progress in the vaccination campaign. The latter contrasts clearly against the backdrop of failures in Europe, where there are problems with the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine continues, and many countries are forced to extend restrictive measures.
Investors are also focusing on the new British-European conflict. Brussels is currently discussing the possibility of suspending the sale of the AstraZeneca vaccine to the UK until the company delivers the agreed amount to European countries. This decision could significantly slow down the rate of vaccinations in the UK, which currently remains one of the most significant in the world. British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, intends to hold telephone talks with the Head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, to prevent disruption of supplies. British politicians have accused the Eurozone of, “vaccine nationalism”, that will not benefit anyone. Though analysts have advised it is unlikely that the two regions will not be able to come to an agreement.
The USD is under the influence of controversial news. On the one hand, he is supported by comments from the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Thomas Barkin, who said that the US economy is close to completing its recovery. He also noted that widespread vaccinations and financial support from the government should stimulate pent-up consumer demand, and the dire consequences for the national labor market will not be long-term. Nevertheless, according to the official, several significant problems remain in the economy. First of all, this is an increase in federal debt and a decrease in the number of small businesses due to the pandemic.
On the other hand, investors are alarmed by tight relations between the PRC and the United States. With the arrival of President Joe Biden’s new administration in the White House, much of the market hoped for a softening of the US-China trade disputes, but the latest talks in Anchorage showed that Washington will continue to exert sanctions pressure on Beijing. Also, the positions of USD are negatively affected by the latest data on the coronavirus pandemic. Despite widespread vaccination, the number of cases in 21 US states has begun to rise again amid the easing of quarantine restrictions too quickly.
The volatility of the asset currently remains low as it did yesterday. Though it should be noted, this may change throughout the day as economical statistics are released and speeches take place. At the moment, the movement of the asset is natural with no bullish or bearish breakouts. The support and resistance levels are stated below:
Resistance levels: 1.3857, 1.3924, 1.4000, 1.4050.
Support levels: 1.3800, 1.3760, 1.3700.